Coach your personality, or get burned.
Heard that many years ago, and plenty since. Saw that Saturday night when LSU’s Lane Kiffin thought he was playing it safe by not going for a fourth-and-1 at the Tigers’ 43, nursing a 27-24 lead with 1:46 left.
Instead, he went risk-adverse, Kentucky prevailed 35-34 in overtime, and LSU is now outside the College Football Playoff mix, halfway through the season.
Barring a miraculous undefeated finish including wins over legit top 10 teams Alabama and Texas (back to back, BTW), Kiffin/LSU 1.0 is going to be staring at the 12-team playoff field, heading to the Consolation Bowl.
Like Tiger legend Tyrann Mathieu said at the recent Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl dinner, it’s not going to happen this year.
Not after what Kiffin said was playing the percentages by punting it away, which allowed Kentucky the opportunity to drive from its own 19 toward the game-tying or winning points.
The Wildcats did, 67 yards without a timeout. After getting to overtime, they gambled, and won with a two-point conversion scamper untouched through the middle of the Tigers’ defense by quarterback Kenny Minchey, who found space because an LSU defender missed a signal and was not in the right place at decidedly the wrong time.
Never happens if Kiffin does what made him so appealing during his time at Ole Miss, and channels his brashness. Don’t we expect the opposite of conventional from the Portal King? He still delivers, at least in his gameday walks down Victory Hill, flanked by hip hoppers and heroes, names who register as bold personalities or at least, memorable ones.
That’s part of the persona LSU bought for $91 million plus incentives and a huge spike in NIL spending over seven years.
No more bland Brian Kelly for the Tigers. But think back to when LSU fans loved BK more than a free Double Whopper with cheese. He went for two and beat ‘Bama.
He gambled. And won.
How about the percentages of LSU gaining one yard to lock up the outcome?
“I’m obviously going to struggle with that 4th and 1,” said a crestfallen Kiffin postgame. “Had a chance to end it there. Thought about going for it on 4th and 1.”
Granted, the box is packed on fourth-and-short, but isn’t that what the two highest-paid Tigers, quarterback Sam Leavitt and left tackle Jordan Seaton, are in Baton Rouge to get done?
Look at the game stats and there’s evidence why Kiffin waffled, then punted. Overall, the Tigers averaged 2.6 yards per carry, getting only 94 yards on 36 tries.
But as Mike Tomlin used to say, don’t live in your fears.
Kiffin, to his credit, didn’t back off the topic Sunday talking to Baton Rouge media. But he didn’t have a convincing answer.
“I said, ‘Had this been me five years ago or whatever, I would’ve went for it. Now, obviously, we didn’t stop them, and so everyone says, ‘Man, I wish you would’ve went.’ Because I would’ve just acted more on emotions (back in the day).
“But when you understand analytics, and then you go above even what it says.”
Hope he explains analytics and “what it says” in today’s media session.
“Now, again, it didn’t work, so I get it. Everyone says, ‘Should’ve gone for it.’ I feel the same way,” said Kiffin, 0-2 on the road this season, “but there was a ton of thought into it and a ton of information into that. We took the wind in the fourth quarter on purpose, which helped us. So, we had the wind at our back for the punt.”
The same wind that he cited for the misses of game-tying fourth-period field goals, 42 and 26 yards, by Kentucky’s Adam Zouagui. After getting repeated hugs and head pats from UK coach Will Stein and teammates, the third time was a charm for him, on a 33-yarder that forced OT.
LSU was in the end zone in two plays. Then Kentucky was hanging by a thread, third-and-8 at its 22, before Airline High product and Wildcats’ true freshman receiver Kenny Darby – cast loose by Kiffin in last winter’s recruiting – hauled in a pass and almost dragged several Tigers into the end zone, finally stopped at the 1.
Two snaps later, a UK TD, two time outs, inexplicably followed by a communication breakdown by the Tigers’ defense, and ballgame.
It was a brutal loss for LSU. If Darby had scored, it would have stung just a little more.
Contact Doug at sbjdoug@gmail.com