While commissioners and congressmen confer, Kiffin faces reality of a 9-game SEC schedule

Southeastern Conference commissioner Greg Sankey and his Big Ten Conference counterpart Tony Pettiti were wrestling with congressional lawmakers into Wednesday night over the nuances of the Hail Mary, a.k.a. the Protect College Sports Act.

Sankey, Pettiti, the college presidents they work for, and the rest of the big league college athletic programs are hoping that legislation can regulate their industry, which has boundaries currently accurately defined with an Etch-A-Sketch.

A cornerstone issue is raising and then enforcing a new (already?) compensation cap for the players. Other top of discussion items are limiting transfers, and establishing a five-year window for athlete eligibility – already in place but apparently not set in stone. There’s much, much more.

Chances appear only slightly better for agreement any time soon on a bill palatable to the powerhouses than for peace in the Middle East – which is one of the topics Congress should be focusing on, instead of bailing out decades of indecision by college presidents about athletic issues.

What is happening with absolute certainty is the 2026 college football season. Most fans aren’t involved in the dollars and cents aspect of funding their favorite teams. They’re just itching to see their team do better than last year, unless they’re all about Indiana.

What does that mean for LSU? The Tigers won just seven games as Brian Kelly’s team wobbled too much for him to make it to Halloween, so if Lane Kiffin’s first squad wins eight, is it a better year?

You Tiger fans are laughing now. Nothing less than a playoff berth/SEC championship game appearance/national title (pick one, two or all three depending on your fanaticism level) makes 2026 a success under the Portal King, who brought in a transfer class generally considered to be the best in all the land.

Considering it took spending between $40-50 million on NIL, that No. 1 ranking (for the incoming Tigers, not the 2026 Tigers) seems as accurate as any preseason poll.

Kiffin’s ever-present confidence was apparent Wednesday to an overflow crowd of Baton Rouge Rotary Club members and guests, but he continues to tamp down expectations of a double-digit win season.

Not with the SEC’s new nine-game conference schedule, which eliminates one sure-fire cupcake non-conference contest in a 12-game schedule.

Kiffin understands being at LSU adds a ton to every word he says into a microphone. What he hopes is that the 12 people calling the shots for the College Football Playoff selections accept his contention that SEC teams near the top of the league standings deserve at-large invitations to the 12-team tournament despite a heavier count in the L column.

“There are teams going 10-6 and winning the Super Bowl,” said Kiffin, who 19 years ago at the age of 32 was an NFL head coach. “When you make that parity, (there has to be an) understanding that sometimes the records are going to change, and you have to understand who did you really play, where did you play them, as you look at that. Because there’s a big difference.”

ESPN Analytics, which is probably more reliable than ESPN management, ranked the 20 strongest schedules. LSU was 11th, ninth among its conference colleagues. Every SEC team ranks in the top 20.

Big Ten teams? Ohio State at 8. Michigan eight spots back, and Northwestern slotted at 17th.  If you’re keeping track, you know there’s only one more spot left, and it went to USC at No. 19.

Fair comment: ESPN has the SEC TV rights. ESPN created the analytics. It’s good business for ESPN to have the SEC getting prime billing, so ESPN can sell advertising for SEC games at a prime rate.

But in these parts, you’ll not get much argument that the SEC is tougher top to bottom than the Big Ten, and there’s not a close third. Top end teams in the ACC (Miami) and Big XII (Texas Tech) might be true contenders and will have cleaner records after feasting on inferior conference opposition.

This is 2026. Does history matter? LSU fans hope not. The SEC got the most teams in each of the last three playoff brackets and didn’t get one into the championship game.

Kiffin’s contention is real talk. Tiger fan, can you handle the idea that a three- or four-loss season isn’t a failure? Especially if it gets LSU into the CFP?

There was ample reason aside from making no playoff appearances that Kelly got paid off to shove off last season. But as sure as Tiger fans love night games at home, Kiffin was hired to make the playoffs and make noise in them.

In his Wednesday talk to the Rotarians and pals, Kiffin talked about fielding a “pretty young team” this fall and “building for the future.”

LSU can’t afford another immense coaching contract buyout. Their new guy is telling the folks who have ponied up all the NIL money, along with the rest of Tiger Nation, best to adjust their expectations down from double-digit wins.

And hope the CFP selection committee does, too.

Contact Doug at sbjdoug@gmail.com