Every football fan thinks their team is going to have a better season than “other people” expect. The translation of “other people” is simple – Las Vegas.
It doesn’t matter what Oklahoma fans or Arkansas State fans think of your team; they’ve got their own problems to worry about.
But when Vegas throws out a number for the over/under win totals for college football teams, it signals the beginning of I-can-see-us-going-12-and-0-this-season on message boards all over this great land.
Especially when the posted number is dramatically lower than Joe Fan – on his least optimistic day – thinks.
So here we are, only a few overhyped practices away from the actual season and there’s plenty of time to digest what might (or might not) be for 2022. And no one is digesting that more than LSU fans.
When the Las Vegas number first came out, it was 6.5 wins. In most places, it is now 7, which does make things more interesting. Vegas usually likes to make the number on a “half-win” to eliminate a push. Either you win or you lose since there are no ties in college football.
Despite going 11-12 in the last two years, LSU fans are no strangers to high expectations before a season begins. The number seems strange … as well as easy money to everyone this side of Galliano.
There are two great axioms that any fan should always consider when betting in general, not just on over/under win totals – (1) if you think a betting line is too good to be true, it usually is (aka “somebody knows something”) and (2) those nice buildings they have on Las Vegas Boulevard weren’t built off of people winning easy bets.
You could say that LSU has a talent level equal to every team they will play other than Alabama, but just about every other team in the SEC is thinking the same thing in August.
You gotta figure out what could go right and what could go wrong when assessing whether it is a good bet. And as a fan – and this might hurt your feelings – you have to take the school-colors glasses off and realize that things can actually go south for anybody’s program. (That new coach of yours, Brian Kelly, is six years away from coaching in a 4-8 season just a year removed from a 10-3 season.)
WHAT COULD GO RIGHT: (Put Alabama aside, but by the way, it is at home.) Florida State can’t get out of its own way and it’s in the Superdome … Mississippi State has nothing but a quarterback … Florida is rebuilding … Tennessee is only picked second in the SEC East because everyone else is terrible … Auburn is collapsing on itself … LSU always beats A&M … People may have figured out Arkansas … plus there are three layups built in to the schedule. Playing that tune and you still have wiggle room to cash the ticket after a 9-3 or 8-4 season.
WHAT COULD GO WRONG: (You don’t win your “over” bet if five of these happen. And you lose if six of them happen.) — Alabama (assuming the bus doesn’t get lost on the way to Tiger Stadium) … Florida, Auburn, Arkansas and Texas A&M are all on the road and are you 100 percent positive that LSU is that much better than all of those teams? … Florida State is improving … Tennessee has a very good quarterback returning and maybe the speculation is warranted … Ole Miss lost a lot, but they have owned the transfer portal and you might have to outscore them … Mississippi State’s quarterback is really good and Mike Leach has a nice track record of making good quarterbacks even better.
Your call.
Good luck … we’re all counting on you.
Contact JJ at johnjamesmarshall@yahoo.com